Tesla made it clear this week — the Cybercab has gone into production. But how quickly will self-driving taxis be produced, and how many will the company make?
On Thursday, Tesla posted to CEO Elon Musk on social media site X, saying, “Cybercab is now in production at Giga Texas,” referring to Tesla’s factory near Austin, Texas. The post shows the shiny Cybercab rolling out of the factory and onto the streets. Then came another post by X from the Tesla Robotaxi account that showed a video of a line of identical Cybercabs merging onto the highway.
It has been two months since the first Cybercab was produced, and more than a year and a half since Tesla launched its first autonomous Robotaxi vehicle in October 2024. At the time, Tesla CEO Elon Musk said the production goal was 2 million Cybercabs per year, or about 38,000 per week.
The world’s richest man was more aggressive in his ambitions during Tesla’s earnings call this week for the first quarter of the year. Musk said the initial stages of Cybercab production will be “very slow” due to the time needed to organize the supply chain and production. He said production will continue to “increase” and eventually “(go) clear,” but added a caveat, “to the best of our ability.”
Musk said, “The limiting factor for the expansion is strong validation, to make sure things are completely safe. We don’t want to have a single casualty with the Robotaxi expansion.”
A representative for Tesla did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
NHTSA is investigating 3.2 million Tesla vehicles with full Self-Driving driver assistance, raising concerns that Tesla’s camera-based system failed to detect common road conditions that led to fewer accidents. Tesla says its Full Self-Driving system allows the car to steer, brake and accelerate while a person is in the driver’s seat. One can intervene immediately if needed.
Currently, Tesla operates a limited Robotaxi service in three Texas cities — Dallas, Houston and Austin — with its Model Y. Those cars are autonomous but have a steering wheel and pedals. The company plans to eventually fill its entire fleet, in Texas and elsewhere in the US, with Cybercabs, which may not have steering wheels or pedals.
The global driverless taxi market is expected to grow at an annual rate of 99%, reaching an estimated $147 billion by 2033, according to research firm Grand View Research. In the US, Waymo — owned by Google parent Alphabet — dominates services in 10 major US cities, including Los Angeles, San Francisco and Phoenix. Zoox, which is owned by Amazon, operates in Las Vegas and San Francisco and plans to add Austin and Miami to its list.
Tesla is far behind the competition
Tesla has a mountain to climb to catch up with its ride-hailing rivals, said CNET senior writer Abrar Al-Heeti, who once rode a self-driving Tesla in Vegas.
“It’s a very competitive and fast-moving market,” Al-Heeti said. “There is still a lot of uncertainty and trepidation about Elon Musk’s approach to Cybercab relying solely on cameras to navigate, rather than a combination of cameras, lidar and radar like Tesla’s rivals.”
Autonomous vehicles currently rely on three main technologies to determine their surroundings — cameras, lidar and radar. Waymo and Cruise rely on lidar, or “light and cold detection,” which creates three-dimensional images of the vehicle’s surroundings. Radar, which has been around since World War II, uses radio waves that bounce off objects to determine their location.
Driverless cars are still a hot market, but Al-Heeti says they could eventually dominate the taxi industry, although it may take several years.
“There are still many obstacles from an operational, technical and regulatory point of view,” said Al-Heeti. “Not to mention the apprehension of many passengers and drivers who are not yet convinced that private rides are the safest or most practical option.”